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home >News CenterThe origin and response of Sino US trade frictions
Release time：2018-05-03 browse：947second
Since the United States announced a tariff on solar panels and washing machines at the beginning of the year, and after the tax on steel and aluminum after the tax on the 301 survey in China, Trump persisted in the trade sanctions against China, and the United States was getting far away on the road of protectionism. Despite China's rational response, trade frictions between China and the United States seem to be on the rise, and the "trade war" has become the focus of policy discussions.
On the face of it, a series of policy actions adopted by the US are still under the banner of reducing the trade deficit between China and the United States. However, many studies have shown that the US trade deficit is determined by economic factors and governed by the objective market economy, so launching a trade war is not conducive to the solution of the problem. With the deepening of trade friction, behind the appearance of the trade deficit, the practical purpose of the Trump administration's launching of the current round of trade frictions is becoming clearer.
Cashing in on the campaign promise. In the current round of mid-term elections, the five "rust belt" states will be reelected to the Senate, and both Democrats are seeking re-election. Since Trump has been in power, it has been trying to make articles in trade, and trade protectionism has been successful during the election campaign to help Trump eventually win the election, so Trump can pick up the stick to fulfill its campaign promises and respond to the electorate again. In addition, based on Trump's consistent high pressure negotiation strategy, in this round of trade frictions, he may threaten China to make greater concessions in the negotiations and lay the foundation for the success of the negotiations as a result of the subsequent succession.
Curb China's technological progress and curb China's industrial upgrading. In the course of 40 years of reform and opening up, China has made remarkable achievements in low value-added international industrial chain. At present, it is exploring scientific and technological innovation to promote industrial structure adjustment and upgrading. China's technological progress and industrial development have brought great pressure to the United States, so the 301 survey is basically aimed at the "China made 2025" strategic planning industry and accusations that the Chinese government's market intervention has weakened the comparative advantage of the United States. In addition to tariff measures, the United States also filed a lawsuit against WTO on China's technology licensing practices and foreign investment restrictions in China. As a matter of fact, the United States has been narrowing China's technology transmission channels through combined measures in the struggle for the strategic height of science and technology. Together, the above two sets of measures reveal that this is another focus on the science and technology industry after the renewed suspension of the bilateral investment agreement between the United States and the United States, the strengthening of the review of Chinese enterprises' investment in the United States in the high-tech field and the more accusations of intellectual property rights in China.
In April 16th, the Commerce Department announced a 7 year sales ban on Zte Corp, which directly cut the way of ZTE's survival from the source. The latest progress in the Sino US trade frictions has again highlighted that the advantages of the United States are not in its downstream demand, while its reliance on technical advantages controls the upstream supply to a considerable extent. But if the United States tries to suppress China's industrial and technological progress by restricting exports, the result is likely to be counterproductive, but instead encourages China to form its own upstream supply capacity at all costs and further weaken the cooperation and interdependence of each other. This is not a good thing in the long run to the relationship between the two countries.
From the interaction of Sino US trade frictions, so far, the two sides of China and the United States have come to me mainly orally, and there is no direct or very obvious action, so this stage is more like a "public opinion war". For now, negotiations seem more likely to be the next step for the two countries. But the future, especially the long-term trend, will depend on Trump's ideas of individuals and his team, the political basis of Sino US economic and trade relations and China's propositions.
At present, the Trump administration's trade policy is tactical, reactive and short-term. The positive impact of this feature is that, despite its abandonment of WTO and not focusing on the bottom line of multilateralism, at the very least, it must follow the rules of business and consider the interests and concerns of the majority of the domestic business community in the United States. China is expanding its openness in the service sector, especially in the financial sector. If he is clear headed, the United States will still be able to gain access to key areas in China. But the negative side is the lack of policy consistency, even with strong personal color, so it does not rule out the possibility of taking extreme measures.
At the same time, Sino US economic and trade relations are undergoing irreversible systematic changes. Although the Sino US trade structure is still complementary, in the long run, the promotion of China's industrial competitiveness makes the homogenized competition and strategic content increase significantly, especially in the high-end manufacturing industry and the areas involving national security. As a result, China's economic catching up process will inevitably lead to the division of interests, and the trade friction with the United States as a conservative country will become the norm. Perhaps more importantly, as America's expectations of the evolution of China's political and economic systems completely lost, it is difficult to create a harmonious atmosphere for the bilateral economic and trade cooperation between China and the United States.
Taking all these factors into consideration, our judgement is that the probability of the deterioration of the Sino US trade frictions is very small. Even if the spread worsens, it will not last too long. Negotiations will most likely be the final common option of both sides, but in the long run, the US containment to China will continue.
Faced with the threat of US trade war, the Chinese government does not rule out all options. In fact, the cause of trade partners